Several crude oil refiners shut down plants ahead of hurricane Harvey, disrupting supplies and pushing Crude Oil prices higher. Just under 25 % of Gulf output, had been shut in by the storm (based on U.S. Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement). Crude prices will likely remain elevated in the immediate-term as the impact of the hurricane continues to be assessed. North Korea tested short-range missiles as S.Korea, US conduct drills but the markets will likely be unresponsive. In Washington, everyone and their dog is trying to kick Trump from office. The markets probably won’t react to the continuous shenanigans, unless something serious materializes.
USD: Yellen did nothing to help the USD at Jackson Hole. So unless we get surprizes from Washington, markets will focus on data. The most important events are the second estimate of GDP, NFP and ISM manuf. PMI. We also have personal spending and income; PCE prices; Chicago PMI.
EUR: busy week for the EU as well with Ger Gfk consumer confidence and retail trade, EU Flash CPI, EU & GER unemployment and final manuf. PMI data for EU & GER.
UK: not much happening with only Markit manuf. PMI, and housing data.
CAD: influential event risk is offered by Crude Oil prices following Hurricane Harvey, but also GDP, current account and RBC manufacturing PMI.
AsiaPac: From China we get PMI data reported by both Caixin and the national statistical office. Busy week also from Australia with private capital expenditure, AIG manufacturing index, HIA new home sales, construction work done.
Going into the week I remain bearish on USD vs. Euro & Cad. Nzd is the other bear on the street so EurNzd longs and NzdCad shorts are also considered. However, holiday season isn’t over yet so we cannot expect heightened volatility conditions just yet.
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