Note that this is my current view, but if market conditions change my view can change too. Generally I will trade in alignment with what I have noted here, though I will wait for a set-up before I enter. I base my view on technical and fundamental information. This is my beliefs and you are welcome to have opposite ones. Having a plan is more important than the actual direction for me.
- Wait DXY – MT is bear volatile. A busted breakout and bullish engulfing week off the key 100 level are suggestive of a resumption in the longer-term uptrend in the USD. After the failure of Presidents Trump’s healthcare bill, the market has refocused on improving economic data and the potential benefits of tax reform. But perhaps more importantly (for now), we have seen a re-emergence of the divergence theme (raising rates vs. lowering/holding rates) between the US and other major economies (with perhaps the exception of the UK). Longer-term buy.
- Wait GBP/USD. – MT is sideways volatile. We are close to a bull normal MT and traders can be forgiven for looking to buy the pair, though I do prefer the opportunities on the crosses. The GBP continues to shrug-off Brexit concerns and is supported by the hawkish nature of the last BOE meeting. The fact that article 50 was triggered and the price remains strong and that we are at extremes of oversold sentiment in the futures market are both quite positive signs for Sterling.
- Sell USD/JPY. Trend – MT is bear normal. We are just holding on to the bear MT and it should not be a surprise if we turn sideways here given the price action. With US stocks rising, the bullish engulfing week in the DXY and Japan’s commitment to meeting their 2% inflation target remaining strong I advise caution. Continue to sell with caution.
- Wait AUD/USD. – MT is sideways volatile. We are stuck mid-range but the trajectory remains downwards. Iron ore has been falling with is pressuring the pair. Wait for now.
- Wait EUR/USD. – MT is bull volatile. The Euro sold off for 4 days in a row after failing to hold the key 1.09 level. This is on the back of a reassessment of the ECB’s more hawkish stance in it’s last meeting. Wait for now, but a good option for short-term traders to sell.
- Sell NZD/USD. Trend – MT is bear normal. We may be turning sideways here so be careful. The week we have a global dairy trade action, but the main price diver is likely to be the USD.
- Wait USD/CHF. – MT is bear normal. We had a busted breakout on the pair which lead to a sharp rise (along with the sell-off in EURUSD). Short-term traders can look to buy.
- Wait USD/CAD. – MT is sideways normal. Oil is back up on OPEC compliance with oil production cuts and is now at the key 50 level which is supporting CAD. If oil continues to rise, look to sell below 1.3225, if oil sells off again look to buy above 1.3460.
- Sell EUR/GBP. Trend– MT is bear normal. We have broad based GBP strength and the EURGBP has felt the brunt of it. Look to sell with the first target at .8400 then the point .8300 low.
- Wait EUR/CHF. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
- Sell AUD/JPY. Trend – MT is bear normal. A bearish engulfing day in this MT presents a nice selling opportunity.
- Sell NZD/JPY. Trend – MT is bear normal. Continue to sell.
- Wait GBP/JPY. – MT is sideways quiet. Look to buy above 141.60.
- Sell EUR/JPY. Trend – MT is bear normal. Look to sell.
- Sell CAD/JPY. Trend – MT is bear normal. Continue to sell.
- Sell CHF/JPY. Breakout – MT is bear normal. Sell below 110.80.
- Buy GBP/NZD. Trend – MT is bull normal. Continue to buy.
- Wait EUR/NZD. – MT is sideways normal. Sell below 161.60.
- Wait AUD/NZD. – MT is bull normal. Wait.
- Wait EUR/AUD. – MT is bull volatile. Wait.
- Buy GBP/AUD. Trend – MT is bull normal. Continue to buy.
- Wait AUD/CAD. – MT is bull volatile. Wait.
- Buy GBP/CAD. Trend– MT is bull normal. Continue to buy.
- Wait EUR/CAD. – MT is bull volatile. Wait.
- Wait NZD/CAD. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
- Buy GBP/CHF. Trend – MT is bull normal. Continue to buy.
- Wait CAD/CHF. – MT is bear volatile. Wait.
- Wait NZD/CHF. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
- Wait AUD/CHF. – MT is bear volatile. Wait.
- Wait Gold. – MT is sideways normal. Wait for now.
- Wait Oil. – MT is bull volatile. Wait.
- Wait S&P 500. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
- Wait T-Notes – MT is sideways normal. Wait for now.
View bank reports and fundamental analysis in the chatroom (members only)
Economic calendar for the week ahead:
(MT = Market Type: Click for more information on market types.)
Trend: Market is trending in the direction I have listed and I expect it to continue.
Reversal: I am looking for a reversal against the current trend.
Breakout: The currency pair is breaking out of a range.
About the Author
Sam Eder is a currency trader and author of the Definitive Guide to Developing a Winning Forex Trading System and the Advanced Forex Course for Smart Traders (get free access). He is the owner of www.fxrenew.com a provider of Forex signals from ex-bank and hedge fund traders (get a free trial). If you like Sam’s writing you can subscribe to his newsletter.