Note that this is my current view, but if market conditions change my view can change too. Generally I will trade in alignment with what I have noted here, though I will wait for a set-up before I enter. I base my view on technical and fundamental information. This is my beliefs and you are welcome to have opposite ones. Having a plan is more important than the actual direction for me.
- Sell DXY Trend – MT is bear normal. There is some concern around the ability of Trump to execute on his fiscal policies given the failure to pass his healthcare bill. Fiscal policy should remain in the limelight in the coming week. This concern may also lead to a renewed bout of “risk-off” in stocks. These conflicting forces suggest that the dollar may find strength against the commodity currencies, but struggle vs. the JPY, EUR and GBP.
- Wait GBP/USD. – MT is sideways volatile. The focus will be on how the GBP responds to the trigger of Article 50 this coming Wednesday, along with the EU’s response. Note that speculators in the futures market are at short extremes. This is suggestive of a contrarian buying opportunity. On the data front, a rise in inflation has improved chances of a rate hike. Note a minor reversal pattern has formed at the upper Bollinger Bands on the daily chart, though this may be week end profit taking, rather than a sell signal. Watch and see how the price responds to this weeks events.
- Sell USD/JPY. Trend – MT is bear normal. The Yen has been supported on the back of risk of flows, after the large fall in stocks last Tuesday. Continue to sell.
- Wait AUD/USD. – MT is sideways volatile. The Aussie suffered on the back of risk-off and falling metal prices after failing to break through the key .7750 figure. A minor reversal pattern formed and in this MT we can expect a move back towards .7500. This may be a good choice for short-term traders in the coming week.
- Buy EUR/USD. Trend – MT is bull normal. The euro rose this week after a good performance by French presidential candidate Macron, in the presidential debate. Near the end of the week the currency was supported by improving PMI data. The Bull MT continues but we are now sitting at key resistance so caution is required. Look to buy above 1.0860.
- Sell NZD/USD. Trend – MT is bear normal. The RBNZ left rates on hold and talked down the currency. This was followed by soft trade data. We had the reversal pattern we were looking for last Tuesday, and given the risk-off sentiment I like to sell the pair.
- Sell USD/CHF. Trend – MT is bear normal. Risk-off should continue to drive the pair lower with the next target at .9860.
- Wait USD/CAD. – MT is sideways normal. Despite some OK data, the falling oil price should continue to pressure the pair. We have settled into a sideways MT so wait for now.
- Wait EUR/GBP. – MT is sideways normal. After falling for most of the week, a bullish engulfing day on Friday means that there may be some upside in the coming week.
- Wait EUR/CHF. – MT is bull volatile. Wait.
- Sell AUD/JPY. Trend – MT is bear normal. Look to sell.
- Sell NZD/JPY. Trend – MT is bear normal. Continue to sell.
- Wait GBP/JPY. – MT is sideways quiet. Look for a break of 137.80 to sell the pair or 141.60 to buy the pair.
- Wait EUR/JPY. Trend – MT is sideways volatile. Wait.
- Sell CAD/JPY. Trend – MT is bear normal. Continue to sell.
- Wait CHF/JPY. – MT is sideways normal. Wait for now.
- Buy GBP/NZD. Trend – MT is bull normal. Continue to buy.
- Buy EUR/NZD. Trend – MT is bull normal. Continue to buy, but with caution.
- Wait AUD/NZD. – MT is bull volatile. Wait.
- Buy EUR/AUD. Trend – MT is bull normal. Continue to buy.
- Buy GBP/AUD. – MT is bull normal. Look to buy above 1.6430.
- Wait AUD/CAD. – MT is bull volatile. Wait.
- Buy GBP/CAD. Trend– MT is bull normal. Continue to buy.
- Buy EUR/CAD. Trend – MT is bull normal. Continue to buy.
- Wait NZD/CAD. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
- Wait GBP/CHF. – MT is sideways quiet. Buy above 1.2480.
- Sell CAD/CHF. Trend – MT is bear normal. Continue to sell.
- Sell NZD/CHF. Trend – MT is bear normal. Continue to sell.
- Sell AUD/CHF. Trend – MT is bear normal. Look to sell.
- Wait Gold. – MT is sideways normal. Wait for now.
- Sell Oil. Trend – MT is bear normal. Continue to sell, but watch out as we have a minor basing pattern.
- Sell S&P 500. – MT is bear normal. Look to sell below 2330.
- Wait T-Notes – MT is sideways normal. Wait for now.
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(MT = Market Type: Click for more information on market types.)
Trend: Market is trending in the direction I have listed and I expect it to continue.
Reversal: I am looking for a reversal against the current trend.
Breakout: The currency pair is breaking out of a range.
About the Author
Sam Eder is a currency trader and author of the Definitive Guide to Developing a Winning Forex Trading System and the Advanced Forex Course for Smart Traders (get free access). He is the owner of www.fxrenew.com a provider of Forex signals from ex-bank and hedge fund traders (get a free trial). If you like Sam’s writing you can subscribe to his newsletter.