Note that this is my current view, but if market conditions change my view can change too. Generally I will trade in alignment with what I have noted here, though I will wait for a set-up before I enter. I base my view on technical and fundamental information. This is my beliefs and you are welcome to have opposite ones. Having a plan is more important than the actual direction for me.
- Wait DXY – MT is sideways normal. The DXY is holding above the key 100 level. The dollar continues to mark time awaiting clarity on President Trumps trade and growth plans. Meanwhile, the Fed continues it’s hawkish tone with a March hike on the table, though it is far from a certainty. Data remains good. Note there is concern about Treasury Secretary Mnuchin’s weak dollar talk. While I still prefer to buy dollars, wait for now in this MT and given the mixed fundamental outlook.
- Wait GBP/USD. – MT is sideways normal. GDP data was good out of the UK and Brexit concerns have eased, but with clear sentiment lacking the pair remains range bound. Wait.
- Wait USD/JPY. – MT is sideways normal. US bond yields continue to dictate price action in USDJPY with the currency pair under pressure despite risk-on in stocks. Wait for now, but watch for a break lower if bonds break higher.
- Wait AUD/USD. – MT is sideways normal. A weekly hammer, along with reversal patterns in Iron Ore and Copper and bearish comments from RBA Governor Lowe suggest that the recent bull market in the AUD may be topping out. A close below .7650 presents a selling opportunity.
- Sell EUR/USD. Trend – MT is bear normal. The EURUSD has confirmed the bear normal MT. The fundamental background is election worries with a particular focus on France where Euro-skeptic Marine Le Pen is in with a chance of winning at least the first round of the election. There are also concerns around the Netherlands, Italy and even Germany. Greek debt issues remain on the horizon as well.
- Wait NZD/USD. – MT is sideways normal. The Kiwi found a base around .7150 after the initial sell-off a couple of weeks back after the RBNZ began talking the currency down. Milk prices were relatively flat, and overall the NZ economy continues to perform. Bigger picture technical analysis suggests that there is more downside to come. Sell on a clean break of .7130.
- Wait USD/CHF. – MT is sideways normal. The CHF will be a beneficiary of concerns around Eurozone politics, in particular if we switch to a risk-off environment. Note the SNB now holds over 63 billion in US equities. If these need to be sold and the funds repatriated then the SNB will have little chance of holding back any gains in the CHF (to say the least). Wait for now in this MT.
- Wait USD/CAD. – MT is sideways normal. The CAD is finding support above the key 1.30 level and the MT has flipped to sideways normal. The pair is trading on the back of mixed USD sentiment and Oil remains range bound. Wait for now.
- Wait EUR/GBP. – MT is sideways normal. We have the makings of a bear MT in EURGBP, but I would like to see the price trade below .84 to confirm.
- Sell EUR/CHF. Trend – MT is bear normal. Look to sell below 1.0630.
- Wait AUD/JPY. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
- Wait NZD/JPY. – MT is sideways normal. Look to trade a break below .7150 on a shift to a bear MT.
- Wait GBP/JPY. – MT is sideways quiet. Look for a break of 139.00 to sell the pair.
- Sell EUR/JPY. Trend – MT is bear normal. Continue to sell.
- Wait CAD/JPY. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
- Sell CHF/JPY. Trend – MT is bear normal. Look to sell.
- Wait GBP/NZD. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
- Wait EUR/NZD. – MT is sideways quiet. Wait.
- Sell AUD/NZD. Reversal – MT is bull normal. A weekly hammer off the top of the range suggests a reversal trade opportunity.
- Sell EUR/AUD. Trend – MT is bear normal. 1.37 target was hit, continue to sell.
- Wait GBP/AUD. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
- Wait AUD/CAD. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
- Wait GBP/CAD. – MT is sideways quiet. Wait.
- Wait EUR/CAD. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
- Wait NZD/CAD. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
- Wait GBP/CHF. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
- Wait CAD/CHF. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
- Wait NZD/CHF. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
- Buy AUD/CHF. Trend – MT is bull normal. Continue to buy, but with caution.
- Buy Gold. Trend – MT is bull normal. Continue to buy.
- Wait Oil. – MT is sideways quiet. Wait.
- Buy S&P 500. Trend – MT is bull normal. Continue to buy.
- Wait T-Notes – MT is sideways normal. Look to buy above 1.26.
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Economic calendar for the week ahead:
(MT = Market Type: Click for more information on market types.)
Trend: Market is trending in the direction I have listed and I expect it to continue.
Reversal: I am looking for a reversal against the current trend.
Breakout: The currency pair is breaking out of a range.
About the Author
Sam Eder is a currency trader and author of the Definitive Guide to Developing a Winning Forex Trading System and the Advanced Forex Course for Smart Traders (get free access). He is the owner of www.fxrenew.com a provider of Forex signals from ex-bank and hedge fund traders (get a free trial). If you like Sam’s writing you can subscribe to his newsletter.