Note that this is my current view, but if market conditions change my view can change too. Generally I will trade in alignment with what I have noted here, though I will wait for a set-up before I enter. I base my view on technical and fundamental information. This is my beliefs and you are welcome to have opposite ones. Having a plan is more important than the actual direction for me.
- Sell DXY Trend – MT is bear normal. The Dollar is suffering on the back of weak data, lowered rate hike expectations and the continued inability of Trump to enact his campaign growth initiatives. Things are not helped by continued probes into Trumps Russian dealings (be they true or not). Watch out for FOMC this week, though don’t expect much to change.
- Wait GBP/USD. – MT is sideways normal. The attempted break above 1.31 was busted early last week and we are back into a sideways MT. There was tepid inflation numbers and market participants doubt the BOE’s resolve to normalise monetary policy given the uninspiring data and ongoing political concerns. Look for a move back toward 1.28.
- Wait USD/JPY. Breakout – MT is bear normal. Despite rising equities and a suitably dovish BOJ, the pair has broken out into a Bear MT. But that is to be expected if you look at bond markets with US yields steadily decreasing in lock-step with Yen strength. Look to sell.
- Buy AUD/USD. Trend – MT is bull normal. The Aussie saw some profit taking ahead of the key 80 figure on the back of the RBA expressing concerns about the strength of the currency. The Aussie has been hot after a bounce in Iron Ore prices, good data, a hawkish RBA and USD weakness. We are at 2-year highs and have broken out into a weekly bull MT. A little profit taking would be appropriate here, otherwise the bull MT is set to continue. Buy on a dip.
- Buy EUR/USD. Trend – MT is bull normal. The EUR is making new highs, having cleared 1.16 resistance, this is on the back of a more dovish than expected ECB. When a currency ignores bad news its typically a strong bullish sign and we can continue to buy.
- Buy NZD/USD. Trend – MT is bull fast. The kiwi is on a tear benefiting from USD weakness, AUDNZD selling, global risk on and the hunt for yield. Look for the move to take us towards the .7500 level and possibly beyond. Note that NZDUSD has also broken out into a bull MT.
- Sell USD/CHF. Trend – MT is bear normal. The pair has broken through the first of the major support levels surrounding the key .9500 figure. We are sitting right on the next one so some caution is to be had. If the level is cleared we can expect the pair to head down towards .9300.
- Sell USD/CAD. Trend – MT is bear normal. The strong bear market that broke out on the shift to a more hawkish stance by the BOC continues. Last week we saw good data support the trend as did USD weakness. 1.25 is now well in sight.
- Buy EUR/GBP. Trend – MT is bull normal. The pair has broken out into a bull MT. This was supported by the continued out performance of European data compared to UK data. We can target a move to .9050.
- Buy EUR/CHF. Trend – MT is bull normal. Continue to buy.
- Buy AUD/JPY. Trend – MT is bull normal. Continue to buy, but watch out for the weekly doji that has formed off resistance.
- Wait NZD/JPY. – MT is sideways quiet. Look to buy above 83.60 or down through 81.40
- Sell GBP/JPY. Breakout – MT is bear normal. Look to sell.
- Buy EUR/JPY. Trend – MT is bull normal. Continue to buy, though careful as we may shortly turn sideways.
- Buy CAD/JPY. Trend – MT is bull normal. Continue to buy.
- Buy CHF/JPY. Trend – MT is bull normal. Continue to buy, though careful as we may shortly turn sideways.
- Sell GBP/NZD. Trend – MT is bear normal. Look to sell.
- Wait EUR/NZD. – MT is sideways quiet. Wait.
- Wait AUD/NZD. – MT is bull volatile. Wait.
- Wait EUR/AUD. – MT is sideways volatile. Wait.
- Sell GBP/AUD. Trend – MT is bear normal. Continue to sell.
- Wait AUD/CAD. – MT is sideways volatile. Wait.
- Sell GBP/CAD. Trend – MT is bear normal. Continue to sell.
- Sell EUR/CAD. Trend – MT is bear normal. Continue to sell.
- Sell NZD/CAD. Trend – MT is bear normal. Continue to sell.
- Sell GBP/CHF. Breakout – MT is bear normal. Look to sell.
- Buy CAD/CHF. Trend – MT is bull normal. Continue to buy.
- Wait NZD/CHF. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
- Buy AUD/CHF. – MT is bull normal. Continue to buy.
- Wait Gold. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
- Wait Oil. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
- Buy S&P 500. Breakout – MT is bull normal. Continue to buy.
- Sell DAX. Trend – MT is bear normal . Look to sell.
- Wait T-Notes – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
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(MT = Market Type: Click for more information on market types.)
Trend: Market is trending in the direction I have listed and I expect it to continue.
Reversal: I am looking for a reversal against the current trend.
Breakout: The currency pair is breaking out of a range.
About the Author
Sam Eder is a currency trader and author of the Definitive Guide to Developing a Winning Forex Trading System and the Advanced Forex Course for Smart Traders (get free access). He is the owner of www.fxrenew.com a provider of Forex signals from ex-bank and hedge fund traders (get a free trial). If you like Sam’s writing you can subscribe to his newsletter.