Note that this is my current view, but if market conditions change my view can change too. Generally I will trade in alignment with what I have noted here, though I will wait for a set-up before I enter. I base my view on technical and fundamental information. This is my beliefs and you are welcome to have opposite ones. Having a plan is more important than the actual direction for me.
- Long GBP/USD. Trend – MT is bull normal. Fundamentally some wind was taken out of the sails in the UK with news last week, but I expect that is not going to impact the long-term trend. Still prefer to trade GBP against currency pairs other than the USD, as the longer term trend is bearish and I expect more USD strength. Not a bad trade if you like it though.
- Waiting USD/JPY. MT is sideways normal. Looking for long breakouts preferably with a fundamental catalyst.
- Waiting AUD/USD – MT is sideways. As discussed here news has been negative with no price follow though. Bias towards being short for now but wary of a breakout to the upside.
- Waiting EUR/USD. – MT is sideways. The Greek tragedy, as it has been dubbed, still continues despite headlines. I don’t see much risk of Greece leaving the EUR just now, as the EU is a political more than a financial construct, but it is possible. The Fed minutes are also not as dovish (doves want to keep rates low) as the headlines suggest.
- Long NZD/USD. Trend – MT is bull normal. Don’t have much conviction in this opportunity for fundamental reasons.
- Long USD/CHF. Breakout – MT is bull normal. Had the anticipated long breakout but a large bearish candle on Friday could be an indication the breakout will fail. This is a higher conviction trade for me.
- Waiting USD/CAD. – MT is volatile sideways. Look for range trading opportunities.
- Long AUD/JPY. Trend –MT is bull normal. The expected reversal is continuing so continue to look for long trades.
- Long NZD/JPY Trend – MT is bull normal. Stalk for a low-risk long entry point.
- Waiting GBP/NZD. – MT is sideways. Remaining within the range for now.
- Long AUD/NZD. Reversal – MT is longer-term sideways, shorter-term bear. Could be time to start building a long AUD/NZD position. Had a daily bullish reversal candle off weekly support with strong follow through which has now formed a weekly bullish pin candle. A weekly double bottom off major support could be in place. Don’t be surprised if the downside is tested one more time. But it’s a good long now, can’t wait for everything to be perfect. I have conviction about this trade.
- Short EUR/GBP. Trend – MT is bear normal. Keep going short.
- Waiting EUR/AUD. – MT is volatile sideways. Big bullish engulfing on the 4 hour chart presenting a good opportunity for shorter-term traders in this market type.
- Short EUR/NZD. Trend – MT is bear normal. Still don’t have don’t have high conviction in this trade.
- Long GBP/AUD. Trend – MT is bull normal. Starting to form a range. This idea is invalid if price holds below 1.9600, but otherwise I like this trade. No support in site for the AUD on the monthly chart.
- Long GBP/JPY. Trend -MT is bull normal. Still a big fan of this trade and price action looks bullish.
(MT = Market Type: Click for more information on market types.)
Trend: Market is trending in the direction I have listed and I expect it to continue.
Reversal: I am looking for a reversal against the current trend.
Breakout: The currency pair is breaking out of a range.
About the Author
Sam Eder is a currency trader and author of the Definitive Guide to Developing a Winning Forex Trading System and the Advanced Forex Course for Smart Traders (get free access). He is a co-owner of Forex Signal Provider www.fxrenew.com. If you like Sam’s writing you can subscribe to his newsletter.