Note that this is my current view, but if market conditions change my view can change too. Generally I will trade in alignment with what I have noted here, though I will wait for a set-up before I enter. I base my view on technical and fundamental information. This is my beliefs and you are welcome to have opposite ones. Having a plan is more important than the actual direction for me.
- Long GBP/USD. Trend – MT is bull normal. Important bullish news last week, and the BOE is the only central bank excepting the Federal reserve looking to raise rates. But still prefer to trade GBP against currency pairs other than the USD, as the longer term trend is bearish.
- Long USD/JPY. – Breakout – MT is sideways normal. I think the strategy to apply on the the USDJPY is a breakout strategy. Trade the breakout, but get out quickly if it fails – as it dis last week. Then look to repeat with a target towards 130-140.
- Waiting AUD/USD – MT is sideways. News is bearish, but it looks like it may be discounted. Prefer to wait, but stay short if you are already in it until price action confirms any reversal.
- Waiting EUR/USD. – MT is sideways. Still think the tail risk is to the downside, so be careful if you are long. Perhaps by some cheap protection with deep out of the money puts if you want to be long? Prefer to remain short myself.
- Waiting NZD/USD. – MT is sideways. New Zealand entering a drought and still have issues fundamentally. I do think that yield hunting money will keep trying to pick a bottom on the NZD as they don’t grasp the actual fundamentals of the situation. It could be a bumpy ride down.
- Long USD/CHF. – MT is sideways quiet. No change from last week. Forming a very tight range. Wait for the breakout. Suggest using a scale-in approach, and you may want to consider protecting your position. Sideways quiet breakouts can offer very good risk/reward opportunities. I have been doing further investigation into this pair and think it is one of the better plays at the moment. Dislocation like what happened with the peg leads to opportunity and interest rates are very negative.
- Waiting USD/CAD. – MT is volatile sideways. Speculative positioning in the futures oil market have been trying to pick a bottom. Long-term expectations are for the USDCAD to push much higher toward 1.40. Expect the sideways range to continue.
- Long AUD/JPY. Reversal –MT is bull normal. Same as last week, reversal still in play. Bullish candle stick formation and follow though off support suggest a change in trend. – Could be quite a good opportunity for around a 1000 pips – Don’t jump in. Go into stalking mode. If price holds below 91.00 this opportunity is over.
- Long NZD/JPY Trend – MT is bull normal. Stalk for a low-risk long entry point.
- Waiting GBP/NZD. – MT is sideways. Same as last week. Wary of a reversal, but favor the upside.
- Waiting AUD/NZD.– MT is sideways. Short-term trend is bearish. Prefer to wait for now.
- Short EUR/GBP. Trend – MT is bear normal. Continue to look for short trades on this pair.
- Waiting EUR/AUD. – MT is volatile sideways. Could be a long if there is resolution of the Greek debt talks.
- Short EUR/NZD. – MT is bear normal. Price action looks to be staring to favor the NZD, though don’t have high conviction in this.
- Long GBP/AUD. Trend – MT is bull normal. News and price continue to be supportive of this trade, though AUD is being slightly tricky.
- Long GBP/JPY. Trend -MT is bull normal. Continue to favor longs on this currency pair. The uptrend is starting to establish itself after the breakout last week. Possibly the best pair to play against the yen other than the USD.
(MT = Market Type: Click for more information on market types.)
Trend: Market is trending in the direction I have listed and I expect it to continue. I will list this with the .
Reversal: I am looking for a reversal against the current trend
Breakout: The currency pair is breaking out of a range
About the Author
Sam Eder is a currency trader and author of the Definitive Guide to Developing a Winning Forex Trading System and the Advanced Forex Course for Smart Traders (get free access). He is a co-owner of Forex Signal Provider www.fxrenew.com. If you like Sam’s writing you can subscribe to his newsletter.