I plan my trading for the week ahead each weekend. Here are the Forex trading opportunities I will be stalking this week.

Note that this is my current view, but if market conditions change my view can change too. Generally I will trade in alignment with what I have noted here, though I will wait for a set-up before I enter. I base my view on technical and fundamental information. This is my beliefs and you are welcome to have opposite ones. Having a plan is more important than the actual direction for me. 

  • Wait DXY  – MT is sideways volatile. Previously, we mentioned the busted breakout and bullish engulfing week off the key 100 level are suggestive of a resumption in the longer-term uptrend in the USD. This pattern has started to play out despite the miss in Fridays NFP report. We have risk aversion entering the market on the back of Presidents Trumps bombing of Syrian airfields boosting the dollar. There are also concerns around the unpredictability of the French election and terrorist attacks. The NFP result has been written off as a result of the weather. Sentiment remains hopeful that President Trumps policies will deliver, but equity markets are getting twitchy. Meanwhile, the outcome of the meeting between the heads of state of China and the U.S. was portrayed in a positive fashion in the media. There is also some increases in the spread of US bond yields vs. other countries. We can expect a move back towards 102, so short-term traders can buy USD this week. Watch for CPI, Retail sales (both on Fri) and ongoing geopolitical developments to drive price action.
  • Wait GBP/USD. – MT is sideways volatile. The busted breakout off the top of the range two weeks ago (the 28th Mar) was suggestive of a move back towards the 121 low in this MT. This has begun to play out on risk aversion and mixed UK economic data. Selling is more appropriate than buying at this point of time.
  • Sell USD/JPY. Trend – MT is bear normal. We would typically expect Yen to strengthen in this environment but it  has struggled against the USD, probably because yields have been increasing in US bonds. Continue to sell with caution but watch for a flip to a sideways MT. 
  • Wait AUD/USD. –  MT is sideways volatile. The downwards trajectory continues for the Aussie. Risk aversion, mixed data and Iron Ore prices are driving the pair lower. Sell below .74.70.
  • Wait EUR/USD.  –  MT is sideways volatile. The EUR continues to fall, on the back of stronger US bond yields and concerns around the increasingly unpredictable French election. Note that in recent times, risk-off has seen EUR rise vs. the USD. At the moment it’t not. Short-term traders can continue to sell for a move towards 1.05. Note that speculators in the futures market are nearly neutral in their positioning meaning the market could sell off a fair bit before it reaches oversold extremes. This is different to last time the pair was around these levels when speculators were heavily short.
  • Sell NZD/USD. Trend –  MT is bear normal. Our strategy to sell on a pull-back and reversal (the hammer on the 21st) 3 weeks ago continues to play out. There is nothing too much new to note on the Kiwi and we can expect the general market themes playing out at the moment to continue to drive the pair below .69.
  • Wait USD/CHF.  – MT is sideways volatile. The reversal patterns listed in the previous two reports continue to play out. We can continue to look to buy for a move back to 1.0150.
  • Wait USD/CAD. – MT is sideways normal. The Canadian dollar is interesting at the moment. The surge in oil on the back of Geopolitical risks is helping the pair as is some good data. The CAD is outperforming on the crosses but is struggling to hold gains vs. the USD. Safest play would be to look to buy on a break of 1.3470.
  • Sell EUR/GBP. Trend– MT is bear normal. I expected a continuation for the prior weeks trend, but last week the pair failed to break to new lows. I do think we still move towards .84 at least but it is likely to be choppy.

Crosses

  • Wait EUR/CHF.  – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
  • Sell AUD/JPY. Trend – MT is bear normal. Continue to sell.
  • Sell NZD/JPY.  Trend – MT is bear normal. Continue to sell.
  • Wait GBP/JPY.  – MT is sideways quiet. Look to buy above 141.60 or for a clean break of 137.00 
  • Sell EUR/JPY. Trend – MT is bear normal. Look to sell.
  • Sell CAD/JPY. Trend – MT is bear normal. Continue to sell, but showing signs of bottoming so be cautious.
  • Sell CHF/JPY. Breakout – MT is bear normal. Continue to sell.
  • Buy GBP/NZD. Trend – MT is bull normal. Continue to buy.
  • Wait EUR/NZD. – MT is sideways normal. Sell below 151.60.
  • Wait AUD/NZD. – MT is sideways normal. Hammer off the bottom of the range suggests buying in this MT, but signals are not strong.
  • Wait EUR/AUD. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
  • Buy GBP/AUD. Trend – MT is bull normal. Continue to buy, a little bit of profit taking appropriate here.
  • Sell AUD/CAD. Trend –  MT is bear normal. Look to sell.
  • Buy GBP/CAD. Trend–  MT is bull normal. Continue to buy, but be careful here as we look to be turning sideways.
  • Wait EUR/CAD. –  MT is sideways normal. Wait.
  • Wait NZD/CAD. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
  • Buy GBP/CHF.  Trend – MT is bull normal. Continue to buy.
  • Wait CAD/CHF.   MT is sideways normal. Wait.
  • Wait NZD/CHF. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
  • Wait AUD/CHF. – MT is bear volatile. Wait.

Other Markets

  • Sell Gold. Reversal – MT is sideways normal. bearish hammer off the top of the range suggests sell. Wait for a break of $1240 (given the risk-aversion we are seeing) unless you want to be aggressive and sell here.
  • Buy Oil. – MT is bull normal. Look to buy.
  • Wait S&P 500. MT is sideways normal. Wait.
  • Sell T-Notes Reversal – MT is sideways normal. Bearish busted breakout provides a sell signal in this MT.

View bank reports and fundamental analysis in the chatroom (members only)

View the chatroom 

Economic calendar for the week ahead:

View economic calendar

(MT = Market Type: Click for more information on market types.)

Trend: Market is trending in the direction I have listed and I expect it to continue. 

Reversal: I am looking for a reversal against the current trend.

Breakout: The currency pair is breaking out of a range. 

About the Author

Sam Eder is a currency trader and author of the Definitive Guide to Developing a Winning Forex Trading System and the Advanced Forex Course for Smart Traders (get free access). He is the owner of  www.fxrenew.com a provider of Forex signals from ex-bank and hedge fund traders (get a free trial). If you like Sam’s writing you can subscribe to his newsletter.