Note that this is my current view, but if market conditions change my view can change too. Generally I will trade in alignment with what I have noted here, though I will wait for a set-up before I enter. I base my view on technical and fundamental information. This is my beliefs and you are welcome to have opposite ones. Having a plan is more important than the actual direction for me.
- Waiting GBP/USD. – Weekly MT is bear normal, but daily looks sideways. Fundamentals are also a little mixed. Prefer to trade GBP against other currency pairs than the USD.
- Waiting USD/JPY. – MT is sideways normal. Longer-term view is bullish. Patiently waiting for a breakout or a reversal off the edge of the range
- Short AUD/USD Trend – MT is strong bear. Not 100% convinced that a rate cut is going to happen, but the momentum is to the downside and not much support in site. Long-term view is AUD at least 1000 pips lower
- Short EUR/USD. Trend – MT is strong bear. We are getting a little bit of consolidation, but nothing in the fundamentals or technicals to suggest that there will be a change of trend. Interestingly speculators in the futures market have been building a long position in the EUR in anticipation of a bounce. This could mean there is still money on the sidelines (or that needs to close longs) that could drive the price lower if there is any sort of catalyst, or if new lows are seen
- Short NZD/USD. Trend – MT is strong bear. Selling off heavily on a more neutral tone from the RBNZ. Could see a lot lower
- Long USD/CHF. Breakout – MT is bull normal. I suspect that this could be a good long opportunity. The SNB looks to be intervening to weaken the CHF, there are negative interest rates for holding CHF, and if you believe in that the longer-term USD bull market has legs then this could be a good buy. Suggest using a scale-in approach, and you may want to consider protecting your position.
- Long USD/CAD. Trend – MT is volatile bull. Keep stops tight in volatile bull market. I don’t see the trend changing unless we get some new information.
- Short AUD/JPY. Trend –MT is strong bear. Price held below the weekly support level. The weekly chart shows a volatile sideways MT.
- Short NZD/JPY Trend – MT is strong bear. Suspect we will get as low as 83 before we see any slowing of the downside momentum
- Waiting GBP/NZD. – MT is strong bull. But a daily reversal candle has formed after taking out the 2.0815 resistance. Be a little wary of a reversal.
- Long AUD/NZD. Trend – MT is bull normal. Still continue to be long.
- Short EUR/GBP. Breakout – MT is bear normal. Could be entering a sideways MT, but long-term still a EUR bear against the GBP.
- Waiting EUR/AUD. – MT is volatile sideways. MT is difficult to define and fundamentals are currently in a “race to the bottom phase” on both these pairs. Prefer to wait it out. Could be a good trade for people that like to sell the pull-back.
- Waiting EUR/NZD. – MT is volatile sideways. Similar to EURAUD.
- Long GBP/AUD. Trend -MT is strong bull. The GBPAUD has closed above the multi-year high. In this scenario we could either see a reversal or a longer-term breakout. Either should present good risk/reward opportunities. Stalk an entry for either of these on a lower-term time-frame with a 1000 pip profit target (again scaling in preferred). For this trade to work best, look for the direction to be defined by a fundamental catalyst (i.e. some news that gives the pair momentum one way or the other). In the golden age of the central banker, the best fundamental catalysts usually come from them.
(MT = Market Type: Click for more information on market types.)
Trend: Market is trending in the direction I have listed and I expect it to continue. I will list this with the .
Reversal: I am looking for a reversal against the current trend
Breakout: The currency pair is breaking out of a range
About the Author
Sam Eder is a currency trader and author of the Definitive Guide to Developing a Winning Forex Trading System and the Advanced Forex Course for Smart Traders (https://fxrenew.com/forex-course/). He is co-owner of Forex signal provider www.fxrenew.com (You can get a free trial). If you like Sam’s writing you can subscribe to his newsletter for free (https://fxrenew.com/newsletter-sign-up).