Note that this is my current view, but if market conditions change my view can change too. Generally I will trade in alignment with what I have noted here, though I will wait for a set-up before I enter. I base my view on technical and fundamental information. This is my beliefs and you are welcome to have opposite ones. Having a plan is more important than the actual direction for me.
- Sell GBP/USD. Trend – MT is bear fast. Both a more dovish than expected BOE and a good job numbers in the US saw GBP turn into a fast bear MT. Look to sell but careful of a bounce so be patient and stalk a entry.
- Buy USD/JPY. Trend – MT is bull fast. The good job numbers in the US have increased expectations of a December rate hike dramatically. BOJ is not looking at increasing asset purchases but the current scale is still huge. Look to buy but stalk an entry on a lower time-frame.
- Sell AUD/USD. Trend – MT is bear normal. The RBA is on hold for the moment, but this could well change and with USD strengthening look to sell.
- Sell EUR/USD. Trend– MT is bear fast. The divergent paths of the ECB and Fed is in play in the recent price movements and more downside can be expected.
- Sell NZD/USD. Trend – MT is bear normal. We quickly moved from bull to bear MT last week. Poor job numbers and a resumption of the downtrend in milk prices is pressuring the kiwi.
- Buy USD/CHF. Trend– MT is bull normal. Continue to buy with the divergence theme in play.
- Waiting EUR/CHF. – MT is sideways normal. Stops were taken out before the price rebounded on Friday. Expect the sideways MT to continue.
- Waiting USD/CAD. – MT is sideways volatile. Good job numbers on the surface in Canada, but the underlying report shows that much of the increase was due to part-time jobs. Other data was weak and oil is under pressure again. Look for a transition to a bull MT next week.
- Sell EUR/GBP. Trend – MT is bear normal. Bear normal MT is holding but a bullish candle on the back of a more dovish than expected BOE put paid to the downside momentum. But with good UK data and an even more dovish ECB expect further downside.
- Waiting AUD/JPY. – MT is sideways normal. Wait for now.
- Waiting NZD/JPY. – MT is sideways normal. Wait for now.
- Waiting GBP/JPY. – MT is sideways normal. Wait for now.
- Buy EUR/JPY. Reversal – MT is sideways normal. Another bullish hammer off the bottom of the range, but trade with caution.
- Waiting GBP/NZD. – MT is sideways normal. Wait for now.
- Waiting EUR/NZD. – MT is sideways normal. Wait for now.
- Waiting AUD/NZD. – MT is bear volatile. Weekly candles suggest a reversal may be in play, but wait for an appropriate entry.
- Waiting EUR/AUD. – MT is bear normal. Bear normal still in play but a minor double bottom suggests caution.
- Waiting GBP/AUD. – MT is sideways normal. Wait for now.
- Waiting AUD/CAD. – MT is sideways volatile. Wait for now.
- Waiting GBP/CAD. – MT is sideways normal. Wait for now.
- Sell EUR/CAD. Trend – MT is bear normal. Continue short.
- Waiting NZD/CAD. – MT is bull normal. But turning volatile and may switch to sideways.
- Waiting CAD/JPY. – MT is sideways normal. Wait for now.
- Waiting CHF/JPY. – MT is sideways normal. Wait for now.
- Buy GBP/CHF. Trend – MT is bull normal. Continue to buy. Despite the sell off we have a bullish hammer suggesting the uptrend may continue.
- Waiting CAD/CHF. – MT is sideways normal. Wait for now.
- Waiting NZD/CHF. – MT is sideways normal. Wait for now.
- Sell AUD/CHF. – MT is sideways normal. Bearish hammer formation suggests sell, but conviction is low.
Analysis to read:
Economic calendar for the week ahead:
(MT = Market Type: Click for more information on market types.)
Trend: Market is trending in the direction I have listed and I expect it to continue.
Reversal: I am looking for a reversal against the current trend.
Breakout: The currency pair is breaking out of a range.
About the Author
Sam Eder is a currency trader and author of the Definitive Guide to Developing a Winning Forex Trading System and the Advanced Forex Course for Smart Traders (get free access). He is the owner of www.fxrenew.com a provider of Forex signals from ex-bank and hedge fund traders (get a free trial). If you like Sam’s writing you can subscribe to his newsletter.