Note that this is my current view, but if market conditions change my view can change too. Generally I will trade in alignment with what I have noted here, though I will wait for a set-up before I enter. I base my view on technical and fundamental information. This is my beliefs and you are welcome to have opposite ones. Having a plan is more important than the actual direction for me.
- Waiting GBP/USD. – MT is sideways volatile/normal. Still nothing to push the direction either way.
- Waiting USD/JPY. – MT is sideways volatile. We are in the downward phase of the sideways volatile. Another days drop puts us in bear normal. I prefer to wait for the breakout on the weekly chart or for a reversal off the low around 115.50 for a lower/risk higher reward trade.
- Short AUD/USD – Reversal – MT is sideways volatile.We saw a reversal pattern on Wednesday and look for the price to head lower to the bottom of the range.
- Short EUR/USD. Reversal – MT is sideways volatile. Also a reversal pattern off a minor double top – but no follow though as yet so lower conviction. Longer term the key driver of this pair will still be divergent monetary policy, as the macro USD bull is still in play. Speculative short positions in the futures market has increased to record levels.
- Short NZD/USD. Reversal – MT is sideways volatile. Bearish pin candle off resistance on the weekly chart suggests the NZD long opportunity from last week is over for now.
- Long USD/CHF. Reversal – MT is sideways volatile. Still very bullish on this long-term and a bullish engulfing candle suggests a lower conviction long entry, scaling in if it goes our way. SNB seem to be preparing the market for intervention in eurchf.
- Short EUR/CHF. Breakout – MT is bear normal. Breakout has started. Be very very wary of going short this pair as the SNB are making noises which could be preparing the market for more intervention.
- Long USD/CAD. Reversal – MT is sideways volatile. Looking long off after a bounce off the edge and a reversal candle. Geopolitical tensions in oil have eased which may see oil fall again ( expect a sideways MT in oil), which will be negative for CAD.
- Waiting EUR/GBP. – MT is bullish?/ Sideways Volatile. We have a volatile market type here. Potentially we will see the short trade come into play again this week?
- Waiting AUD/JPY. MT is normal sideways. The long breakout failed and we have a bearish pattern on the weekly chart. The sideways MT is still holding, but might end this week to the downside.
- Waiting NZD/JPY – MT is volatile sideways . MT is mixed across timeframes and is a little messy… The bullish thesis is just holding up for now???
- Short GBP/JPY. Trend – MT is strong bear. Look short
- Short EUR/JPY. Trend – MT is normal bear. Prefer the downside.
- Short GBP/NZD. Trend – MT is normal bear. Go short.
- Short EUR/NZD. Trend– MT is normal bear. Keep going short, but be wary of a potential double bottom that formed last week.
- Short AUD/NZD. Trend – MT is normal bear. but support is in the way. Let’s hope my home countries cricket team performs as well in the world cup final today as it’s currency has been against our brothers across the ditch. Kiwi has been ignoring bad news which is a sign the trend will continue.
- Waiting EUR/AUD. Trend – MT is turning sideways volatile. Looks like a reversal off weekly support could be in play? If you want to be long the EUR this could be a decent trade with plenty of upside. Sentiment is favoring EUR over AUD at the moment.
- Short GBP/AUD. Trend – MT is normal bear. Still technically a bear but we are experiencing a pull back. Fundamentals still favor GBP in my humble opinion.
- Short AUD/CAD. Off the Edge – MT is volatile sideways. As suggested last week we have seen a reversal off the edge. Look for it to continue to the bottom of the range.
- Short GBP/CAD. Trend– MT is normal bear. Had a very bullish day on Friday which has formed a weekly reversal candle. Continue to look short as this has not come off any major levels, but with less conviction.
- Waiting EUR/CAD. -MT is turning sideways normal. Wait for some clarity. Prefer shorts if you must.
Analysis to read:
Economic calendar for the week ahead:
(MT = Market Type: Click for more information on market types.)
Trend: Market is trending in the direction I have listed and I expect it to continue.
Reversal: I am looking for a reversal against the current trend.
Breakout: The currency pair is breaking out of a range.
About the Author
Sam Eder is a currency trader and author of the Definitive Guide to Developing a Winning Forex Trading System and the Advanced Forex Course for Smart Traders (get free access). He is a co-owner of Forex Signal Provider www.fxrenew.com. If you like Sam’s writing you can subscribe to his newsletter.