07

I plan my trading for the week ahead each weekend. Here are the Forex trading opportunities I will be stalking this week.

Note that this is my current view, but if market conditions change my view can change too. Generally I will trade in alignment with what I have noted here, though I will wait for a set-up before I enter. I base my view on technical and fundamental information. This is my beliefs and you are welcome to have opposite ones. Having a plan is more important than the actual direction for me. 

  • Waiting GBP/USD.  – MT is sideways normal. Sideways volatile market types has died down to sideways normal. Worse than expected retail sales knock the wind out of the sales in the GBPUSD, keeping things a little unclear vs. the USD, where we have a potentially bullish for USD FOMC meeting this week. Stay clear for now.
  • Waiting USD/JPY.  – MT is sideways normal/ volatile. Weekly charts suggest long but daily charts are mixed and near the top of the range. A Japanese official cautioning against  the need for further yen weakness caused a small sell off as we approached the top of the range. Sideways quiet market type is developing on the 4 hour chart which is worth watching this week, as a breakout could see the uptrend resume. Over the long-term I don’t think there is anything much a Japanese official can say that will halt the up-trend. Over the short-term the market can be quite sensitive.
  • Short AUD/USD.  Trend –  MT is bear normal. Continue with our short approach. Very poor data out of China last week, a possible S&P rating down grade, and the fall in the gold price all putting pressure on the AUD. Continues to be a higher conviction trade.
  • Waiting EUR/USD. – MT is bear normal. But we have come strongly off support and the weekly MT is mixed. Still like short EUR but prudent to wait for now.
  • Short NZD/USD. Trend– MT is normal bear. The market took a comment from PM John Key about the speed of the fall as an opportunity to buy, and then was brought on the rate cut before selling off near the end of the week in sympathy with the AUD. The market misunderstood the comments from Key, and there are still further rate cuts on the cards so the bounce represents a selling opportunity.
  • Long USD/CHF. Trend – MT is bull normal. The EURCHF is also breaking out which will be supportive of this trade. With fears over Greece gone for now the CHF looks less attractive with it’s negative interest rates.
  • Long EUR/CHF. Breakout – MT is bull normal. We are seeing a breakout on increased volume. The price action is significant and there is plenty of scope for the pair to head much higher. There is often opportunity around large dislocations like we have seen in EURCHF so certainly one to watch.
  • Long USD/CAD. Trend – MT is strong bull. Strong bull continues so keep buying. I would be surprised if we have a bottom in oil at these levels so it should continue to put pressure on CAD.
  • Waiting EUR/GBP. – MT is sideways volatile. The weekly breakout mentioned last week is still good until the high of two weeks ago is breached. But with the reversal back inside the range best to be cautious.
  • Short AUD/JPY. Trend–  MT is bear normal. Bear normal market type played out in the end last week, but trade with caution as still at weekly support.
  • Waiting  NZD/JPY. – MT is sideways normal. Weekly MT is bearish. I think this will continue lower but prefer to play it safe for now.
  • Waiting GBP/JPY. – MT is sideways volatile. Wait for now.
  • Waiting EUR/JPY. –  MT is sideways normal. Wait for now on this pair
  • Long GBP/NZDTrend– MT is bull normal. Look to buy.
  • Waiting EUR/NZD. – MT is sideways normal. Likely to see more sideways price action, but think there is a short opportunity here for the contrarian.
  • Waiting AUD/NZD. – MT is sideways volatile. Stay out for now.
  • Waiting EUR/AUD.  – MT is sideways normal. Volatility here makes this paid a bit risky for now.
  • Long GBP/AUD. Trend – MT is bull normal. Continue to buy.
  • Waiting AUD/CAD. –  MT is sideways volatile. Watch for a breakout this week. Could be a decent technical short here.
  • Long  GBP/CAD. Trend – MT is normal bull. Trade with a bit of caution as a weekly doji suggests indecision but MT still bullish.
  • Waiting EUR/CAD.  -MT is bull normal. But at resistance so wait for now.
  • Short NZD/CAD. Off the edge – MT is sideways normal. There is a technical short here toward the bottom of the range based on the daily reversal candles.
  • Short CAD/JPY. Trend  – MT is bear normal.  Look short.
  • Waiting CHF/JPY. – MT is sideways normal. Wait for now.
  • Long GBP/CHF. Trend– MT is bull normal. Look to buy

Analysis to read:

Marc Chandler

Jim Langlands

Economic calendar for the week ahead:

(MT = Market Type: Click for more information on market types.)

(MT = Market Type: Click for more information on market types.)

Trend: Market is trending in the direction I have listed and I expect it to continue. 

Reversal: I am looking for a reversal against the current trend.

Breakout: The currency pair is breaking out of a range. 

About the Author

Sam Eder is a currency trader and author of the Definitive Guide to Developing a Winning Forex Trading System and the Advanced Forex Course for Smart Traders (get free access). He is the owner of  www.fxrenew.com. If you like Sam’s writing you can subscribe to his newsletter.

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