Note that this is my current view, but if market conditions change my view can change too. Generally I will trade in alignment with what I have noted here, though I will wait for a set-up before I enter. I base my view on technical and fundamental information. This is my beliefs and you are welcome to have opposite ones. Having a plan is more important than the actual direction for me.
- Waiting GBP/USD. – MT is sideways volatile. We had some bearish pin candles and failed break higher last week signaling a reversal. Look for the price to move back towards the bottom of the range.
- Long USD/JPY. Trend– MT is bull normal. We have a long breakout from the sideways quiet market type after a failed attempt to break lower. Stocks are up and the pair shrugged off bad news on Friday. ECB’s dovish stance supportive of stocks which should encourage longs in this pair. Still a good time to enter or add to longs.
- Waiting AUD/USD. – MT is sideways normal. Price action mixed last week. Metal prices under pressure and China cutting rates again. Don’t forget that despite the recent bounce we are still clearly in a long-term down tread. But stocks are up so that is bullish AUD. MT sideways for now so wait.
- Sell EUR/USD. Breakout– MT is bear normal. A more dovish than expected ECB saw follow though on last weeks reversal all the way through the range to turn the MT bearish. Be careful of oversold conditions so patience is advised if you are not already short. We are likely to see more downside but important to wait for the right entry levels.
- Buy NZD/USD. Trend – MT is bull normal. We may be turning sideways here so caution advised. Still a chance of a rate cut and China may weighing on the currency.
- Waiting USD/CHF. – MT is sideways normal. A reversal pattern off support last week preceded the rise. Looking bullish but wait for a breakout into a bull MT.
- Waiting EUR/CHF. – MT is bear normal. The ECB pushed this pair into a bear market. Not really one you want to go short. Stocks up should buoy the pair and the SNB pretty determined to push the currency higher.
- Waiting USD/CAD. – MT is sideways volatile. A bullish engulfing weekly candle signals more upside. Oil is under pressure as well. We are stuck mid range so best to wait for now.
- Sell EUR/GBP. Breakout – MT is bear normal. Wait for a bounce and resumption of the downtrend.
- Waiting AUD/JPY. – MT is sideways normal. If stocks continue up from here it will be bullish but with both component parts of the trade not looking that healthy perhaps best to wait.
- Buy NZD/JPY. Trend – MT is bull normal. Continue to buy but careful of the doji formed on Friday after failing at resistance.
- Buy GBP/JPY. Breakout – MT is bull normal. Could be a good option in this environment.
- Waiting EUR/JPY. – MT is sideways normal. Near the bottom of the range so wait for a reversal candle.
- Short GBP/NZD. Trend– MT is bear normal. Shorts still in play but with caution as candles signal we may be about to turn sideways.
- Short EUR/NZD. Trend– MT is bear normal. Continue short. Be cautious of a little bullish hammer. Not a strong reversal signal though.
- Short AUD/NZD. Trend – MT is bear normal. Sentiment may be switching back long but continue short.
- Sell EUR/AUD. Trend– MT is bear normal. Continue with the short approach.
- Waiting GBP/AUD. – MT is sideways normal. Stuck mid range so wait for now.
- Waiting AUD/CAD. – MT is sideways volatile. Wait for now.
- Waiting GBP/CAD. – MT is sideways normal. Wait for now.
- Sell EUR/CAD. – MT is bear normal. Look short.
- Buy NZD/CAD. Trend – MT is bull normal. Wait for a dip as we have a bearish hammer.
- Waiting CAD/JPY. – MT is sideways normal. Wait for now.
- Waiting CHF/JPY. – MT is sideways normal. Wait for now.
- Buy GBP/CHF.– MT is Bull normal. Last weeks bullish hammer played out and we have now just entered a bull MT. Careful of a little doji here which might indicate a temporary pullback.
- Waiting CAD/CHF.– MT is sideways normal. Wait for now.
- Buy NZD/CHF. Trend – MT is bull normal. Continue to look long but we cautious of a bearish hammer here.
Analysis to read:
Economic calendar for the week ahead:
(MT = Market Type: Click for more information on market types.)
Trend: Market is trending in the direction I have listed and I expect it to continue.
Reversal: I am looking for a reversal against the current trend.
Breakout: The currency pair is breaking out of a range.
About the Author
Sam Eder is a currency trader and author of the Definitive Guide to Developing a Winning Forex Trading System and the Advanced Forex Course for Smart Traders (get free access). He is the owner of www.fxrenew.com a provider of Forex signals from ex-bank and hedge fund traders (get a free trial). If you like Sam’s writing you can subscribe to his newsletter.