07

I plan my trading for the week ahead each weekend. Here are the Forex trading opportunities I will be stalking this week.

Note that this is my current view, but if market conditions change my view can change too. Generally I will trade in alignment with what I have noted here, though I will wait for a set-up before I enter. I base my view on technical and fundamental information. This is my beliefs and you are welcome to have opposite ones. Having a plan is more important than the actual direction for me. 

  • Waiting GBP/USD. – MT is sideways volatile. A little bit of bearish pattern in a sideways MT suggests caution.
  • Long  USD/JPY. Reversal  MT is sideways quiet. A bullish pin candle after a failed break lower suggests a move towards the top of the range. Data continues to be poor out of Japan and the chances of more easing are increasing. We need to remember the last time there was easing it came as a surprise, so that may be part of the BOJ’s strategy (surprises have the most impact). Stocks also look like they will be heading higher. A medium conviction long-term buy appropriate at these levels.
  • Long AUD/USD. Trend –  MT is bull normal. A couple of bearish candles here, but the uptrend is still intact. Aussie banks raised rates last week on the back of increased funding costs, providing scope for a further rate cut for the RBA. Wait for a clear sign the trend is resuming before entering, and careful of a deeper sell-off.
  • Sell EUR/USD. Reversal – MT is sideways normal. We had a bearish engulfing in a sideways MT and with equities up we could well see a move back towards the bottom of the range. A bearish weekly hammer off 1.15 is also quite a negative sign for the pair.
  • Buy NZD/USD. Trend – MT is bull normal. Bull normal MT continues but we want to stalk an entry. The chance of a rate cut in 2 weeks is seen to be a 50/50 call and the RBNZ wont like to see the kiwi up at there levels.
  • Waiting USD/CHF. – MT is bear normal. Bear normal MT continues but bigger picture things are choppy and we are sitting as support and we are seeing early signs of a reversal. With stocks up the pair may find it difficult to head too much lower.
  • Waiting  EUR/CHF. – MT is sideways normal. A Doji at support in this market type may well see a recovery back toward 1.0950.
  • Sell USD/CAD. – MT is bear normal. Bear normal MT continues so look short.
  • Waiting EUR/GBP. – MT is sideways normal. A weekly engulfing short after a busted breakout higher looks like quite a bearish sign for the currency.
  • Buy AUD/JPY. Trend – MT is bull normal. Continue to look long. If stocks continue to rise and USDJPY heads higher it will support the trend.
  • Buy NZD/JPY. Trend – MT is bull normal. Careful of he spinning top here, but continue to buy in this environment.
  • Waiting GBP/JPY. – MT is sideways normal. Stuck mid range so wait. weekly charts starting to look a little bullish.
  • Waiting EUR/JPY. –  MT is sideways normal. Continue to wait.
  • Short GBP/NZD. Trend– MT is bear normal. Continue short.
  • Short EUR/NZD. Trend– MT is bear normal. Continue short.
  • Short  AUD/NZD. Trend – MT is bear normal. Strong breakout lower after a failed reversal pattern last Wednesday. Look short, but be wary of a bounce here.
  • Sell EUR/AUD. Trend– MT is bear normal. Look short.
  • Sell GBP/AUD. Trend – MT is bear normal. Wait for now.
  • Waiting AUD/CAD. –  MT is sideways volatile. Bearish engulfing suggests we will see a move back towards the bottom of the range.
  • Waiting GBP/CAD.  – MT is sideways normal. Wait for now.
  • Waiting EUR/CAD.  – MT is sideways normal. Wait for now.
  • Buy NZD/CAD.  Trend – MT is bull normal. Look to buy.
  • Buy CAD/JPY. Trend  – MT is bull normal. Look to buy.
  • Waiting CHF/JPY. – MT is sideways normal. Wait for now.
  • Buy GBP/CHF.– MT is sideways normal. Weekly bullish hammer after busted breakout creates a decent risk reward buy for a move back towards 1.54.
  • Waiting CAD/CHF.– MT is sideways normal. Wait for now.
  • Buy NZD/CHF. Trend – MT is bull normal. Continue to look long.

Analysis to read:

Marc Chandler

Jim Langlands

Economic calendar for the week ahead:

(MT = Market Type: Click for more information on market types.)

Trend: Market is trending in the direction I have listed and I expect it to continue. 

Reversal: I am looking for a reversal against the current trend.

Breakout: The currency pair is breaking out of a range. 

About the Author

Sam Eder is a currency trader and author of the Definitive Guide to Developing a Winning Forex Trading System and the Advanced Forex Course for Smart Traders (get free access). He is the owner of  www.fxrenew.com a provider of Forex signals from ex-bank and hedge fund traders (get a free trial). If you like Sam’s writing you can subscribe to his newsletter.