Note that this is my current view, but if market conditions change my view can change too. Generally I will trade in alignment with what I have noted here, though I will wait for a set-up before I enter. I base my view on technical and fundamental information. This is my beliefs and you are welcome to have opposite ones. Having a plan is more important than the actual direction for me.
Note: With the tragic events in Paris this weekend, the information in this report could be out of date by the open on Monday. Please trade with extra caution and I will post a video after the open with updated information.
- Wait GBP/USD. – MT is bear normal. We are in a wider sideways MT so trade with caution. Longer-term, data is indicative that the BOE will be the next to raise rates after the Fed, but for now we have no major fundamental driver of the pair.
- Wait USD/JPY. – MT is bull normal. The bull normal MT is still in play but with stocks selling off and the events in Paris, we could see a sell-off back to 121.50. Go long, but wait for a strong buy signal. In addition this pair may be a good option for a short day trade on Monday.
- Sell AUD/USD. Trend – MT is bear normal. Pin candle on Friday suggests a sell in this MT. Stocks and copper are down, and RBA has become more dovish. With the Fed looking to raise rates next month and a potential risk-off environment this week, AUDUSD is lining up for a decent sell
- Wait EUR/USD. – MT is bear normal. I’m not sure what is going to happen to the EURUSD on the open. Typically, EURUSD would sell off in these conditions, but EUR has been purchased when stocks have been sold off in recent times, though this relationship may have been short-term. We are also near support and a bullish candle on Thurs is something to be wary of.
- Sell NZD/USD. Trend – MT is bear normal. Price held in a range last week, so might be best to wait for a break-out lower before entering. RBNZ won’t be happy with the NZD at these levels, and with the Auckland hosing market coming off the boil slightly it opens the scope for more easing. Economic conditions remain under pressure.
- Buy USD/CHF. Trend– MT is bull normal. Continue to buy, but careful with stocks selling off.
- Waiting EUR/CHF. – MT is sideways normal. Technically EURCHF is basing again here so prefer to buy.
- Buy USD/CAD. Trend – MT is bull normal. We are just in a bull normal MT. Oil is down 10% last weekend and stocks are off. Look to buy.
- Sell EUR/GBP. Trend – MT is bear normal. We have a minor double bottom in place so be cautious, otherwise look to sell.
- Waiting AUD/JPY. – MT is sideways normal. Wait for now, but this is one to watch on Monday for a short-term sell.
- Waiting NZD/JPY. – MT is sideways normal. Wait for now, but look to go short on a break below the lower BB. Weekly charts are very bearish.
- Waiting GBP/JPY. – MT is sideways normal. Wait for now.
- Buy EUR/JPY. Reversal – MT is sideways normal. Reversal still in play with a triple bottom, but wait for the price to hold above 133.00 to enter. Not sure what will happen on the open either.
- Waiting GBP/NZD. – MT is sideways normal. Wait for now.
- Waiting EUR/NZD. – MT is sideways normal. Wait for now.
- Sell AUD/NZD. – MT is bear volatile. Minor double top in play with a small hammer off a major key levels suggests a decent selling opportunity.
- Sell EUR/AUD. – MT is bear normal. Continue to sell.
- Waiting GBP/AUD. – MT is sideways normal. Wait for now.
- Waiting AUD/CAD. – MT is sideways volatile. Wait for now.
- Waiting GBP/CAD. – MT is sideways normal. Wait for now.
- Sell EUR/CAD. Trend – MT is bear normal. Continue short, but low conviction now.
- Waiting NZD/CAD. – MT is bull normal. But turning volatile and may switch to sideways.
- Waiting CAD/JPY. – MT is sideways normal. Wait for now, but go option for a short on Monday if markets turn risk-off.
- Waiting CHF/JPY. – MT is sideways normal. Wait for now.
- Buy GBP/CHF. Trend – MT is bull normal. Continue to buy, but be wary of a bearish candle on Monday which would create a minor double top.
- Waiting CAD/CHF. – MT is sideways normal. Wait for now.
- Waiting NZD/CHF. – MT is sideways normal. Wait for now.
- Buy AUD/CHF. – MT is bull quiet. Wait for a pull-back towards 0.7050 before purchasing.
Analysis to read:
Economic calendar for the week ahead:
(MT = Market Type: Click for more information on market types.)
Trend: Market is trending in the direction I have listed and I expect it to continue.
Reversal: I am looking for a reversal against the current trend.
Breakout: The currency pair is breaking out of a range.
About the Author
Sam Eder is a currency trader and author of the Definitive Guide to Developing a Winning Forex Trading System and the Advanced Forex Course for Smart Traders (get free access). He is the owner of www.fxrenew.com a provider of Forex signals from ex-bank and hedge fund traders (get a free trial). If you like Sam’s writing you can subscribe to his newsletter.