Note that this is my current view, but if market conditions change my view can change too. Generally I will trade in alignment with what I have noted here, though I will wait for a set-up before I enter. I base my view on technical and fundamental information. This is my beliefs and you are welcome to have opposite ones. Having a plan is more important than the actual direction for me.
- Waiting GBP/USD. – MT is sideways volatile. We had a buy signal off the bottom of the range last week, but a dovish tone by the BOE has dampened the rise and we need to be wary of the bearish engulfing candle that formed on Friday.
- Waiting USD/JPY. – MT is sideways quiet. We have a very, very tight sideways range with the potential for a break either way. Prefer to trade this to the upside, but will take a smaller position short if it breaks lower.
- Long AUD/USD. Trend – MT is bull normal. We have switched into a bull normal market type, but with nine up days in a row its best to wait for a retracement before looking to add longs. With such an over-brought market be careful of any bad news triggering profit taking. Expect this move to be a medium-term pull-back with long-term fundamentals still bearish.
- Waiting EUR/USD.– MT is sideways normal. Conditions in Germany are deteriorating and with equity markets on the rise we should start to see EUR weakness. But wait for clear signals.
- Buy NZD/USD. Trend – MT is bull normal. Kiwi is on a tear after the breakout of the sideways quiet MT on the back of improved milk prices. Similar to AUD, this could well be a medium-term pull back and be careful of profit taking.
- Sell USD/CHF. Breakout – MT is bear normal. We are just breaking out of the sideways MT. Have a fair degree to caution if you want to take this trade.
- Waiting EUR/CHF. – MT is sideways normal. The sideways MT continues so look to buy near the bottom of the range.
- Sell USD/CAD. – MT is bear normal. Look short here, but careful of the daily pin candle after an attempt for oil to push higher. Perhaps AUD and NZD over CAD because of this.
- Waiting EUR/GBP. – MT is sideways normal. Fundamentals mixed, and the sideways MT persists. Wait for now.
- Buy AUD/JPY. Trend – MT is bull normal. Big gains last week in this pair. If we see a breakout to the long side on USDJPY the currency could continue it’s rapid ascent, otherwise there are similar over-brought concerns to AUDUSD.
- Buy NZD/JPY. Trend – MT is bull normal. Nice breakout of the sideways quiet MT.
- Waiting GBP/JPY. – MT is sideways normal. Be wary of the doji on Friday.
- Waiting EUR/JPY. – MT is sideways normal. Continue to wait.
- Short GBP/NZD. Trend– MT is bear normal. Continue short.
- Short EUR/NZD. Breakout – MT is bear normal. Continue short.
- Buy AUD/NZD. Reversal – MT is sideways volatile. Bullish engulfing suggests this could be a decent risk/reward buy.
- Sell EUR/AUD. Breakout– MT is bear normal. Look short.
- Sell GBP/AUD. Trend – MT is bear normal. Wait for now.
- Waiting AUD/CAD. – MT is sideways volatile. Wait for now.
- Short GBP/CAD. Trend – MT is bear normal. Continue short, but wary of a reversal in oil.
- Waiting EUR/CAD. – MT is sideways normal. Wait for now.
- Buy NZD/CAD. Trend – MT is bull normal. Look to buy.
- Buy CAD/JPY. Trend – MT is bull normal. Look to buy.
- Waiting CHF/JPY. – MT is sideways normal. Wait for now.
- Waiting GBP/CHF.– MT is sideways normal. Wait for now.
- Waiting CAD/CHF.– MT is sideways normal. Wait for now.
- Buy NZD/CHF. Trend – MT is bull normal. Last weeks trade idea played out so continue to look long.
Analysis to read:
Economic calendar for the week ahead:
(MT = Market Type: Click for more information on market types.)
Trend: Market is trending in the direction I have listed and I expect it to continue.
Reversal: I am looking for a reversal against the current trend.
Breakout: The currency pair is breaking out of a range.
About the Author
Sam Eder is a currency trader and author of the Definitive Guide to Developing a Winning Forex Trading System and the Advanced Forex Course for Smart Traders (get free access). He is the owner of www.fxrenew.com a provider of Forex signals from ex-bank and hedge fund traders (get a free trial). If you like Sam’s writing you can subscribe to his newsletter.