07

I plan my trading for the week ahead each weekend. Here are the Forex trading opportunities I will be stalking this week.

Note that this is my current view, but if market conditions change my view can change too. Generally I will trade in alignment with what I have noted here, though I will wait for a set-up before I enter. I base my view on technical and fundamental information. This is my beliefs and you are welcome to have opposite ones. Having a plan is more important than the actual direction for me. 

  • Waiting GBP/USD. – MT is sideways volatile. We had a buy signal off the bottom of the range last week, but a dovish tone by the BOE has dampened the rise and we need to be wary of the bearish engulfing candle that formed on Friday.
  • Waiting USD/JPY.  MT is sideways quiet. We have a very, very tight sideways range with the potential for a break either way. Prefer to trade this to the upside, but will take a smaller position short if it breaks lower.
  • Long AUD/USD. Trend –  MT is bull normal. We have switched into a bull normal market type, but with nine up days in a row its best to wait for a retracement before looking to add longs. With such an over-brought market be careful of any bad news triggering profit taking.  Expect this move to be a medium-term pull-back with long-term fundamentals still bearish.
  • Waiting EUR/USD.– MT is sideways normal. Conditions in Germany are deteriorating and with equity markets on the rise we should start to see EUR weakness. But wait for clear signals.
  • Buy NZD/USD. Trend – MT is bull normal. Kiwi is on a tear after the breakout of the sideways quiet MT on the back of improved milk prices.  Similar to AUD, this could well be a medium-term pull back and be careful of profit taking.
  • Sell USD/CHF. Breakout – MT is bear normal. We are just breaking out of the sideways MT. Have a fair degree to caution if you want to take this trade.
  • Waiting  EUR/CHF. – MT is sideways normal. The sideways MT continues so look to buy near the bottom of the range.
  • Sell USD/CAD. – MT is bear normal. Look short here, but careful of the daily pin candle after an attempt for oil to push higher. Perhaps AUD and NZD over CAD because of this.
  • Waiting EUR/GBP. – MT is sideways normal. Fundamentals mixed, and the sideways MT persists. Wait for now.
  • Buy AUD/JPY. Trend – MT is bull normal. Big gains last week in this pair. If we see a breakout to the long side on USDJPY the currency could continue it’s rapid ascent, otherwise there are similar over-brought concerns to AUDUSD.
  • Buy NZD/JPY. Trend – MT is bull normal. Nice breakout of the sideways quiet MT.
  • Waiting GBP/JPY. – MT is sideways normal. Be wary of the doji on Friday.
  • Waiting EUR/JPY. –  MT is sideways normal. Continue to wait.
  • Short GBP/NZD. Trend– MT is bear normal. Continue short.
  • Short EUR/NZD. Breakout – MT is bear normal. Continue short.
  • Buy  AUD/NZD. Reversal – MT is sideways volatile. Bullish engulfing suggests this could be a decent risk/reward buy.
  • Sell EUR/AUD. Breakout– MT is bear normal. Look short.
  • Sell GBP/AUD. Trend – MT is bear normal. Wait for now.
  • Waiting AUD/CAD. –  MT is sideways volatile. Wait for now.
  • Short GBP/CAD. Trend – MT is bear normal. Continue short, but wary of a reversal in oil.
  • Waiting EUR/CAD.  – MT is sideways normal. Wait for now.
  • Buy NZD/CAD.  Trend – MT is bull normal. Look to buy.
  • Buy CAD/JPY. Trend  – MT is bull normal. Look to buy.
  • Waiting CHF/JPY. – MT is sideways normal. Wait for now.
  • Waiting GBP/CHF.– MT is sideways normal. Wait for now.
  • Waiting CAD/CHF.– MT is sideways normal. Wait for now.
  • Buy NZD/CHF. Trend – MT is bull normal. Last weeks trade idea played out so continue to look long.

Analysis to read:

Marc Chandler

Jim Langlands

Economic calendar for the week ahead:

(MT = Market Type: Click for more information on market types.)

Trend: Market is trending in the direction I have listed and I expect it to continue. 

Reversal: I am looking for a reversal against the current trend.

Breakout: The currency pair is breaking out of a range. 

About the Author

Sam Eder is a currency trader and author of the Definitive Guide to Developing a Winning Forex Trading System and the Advanced Forex Course for Smart Traders (get free access). He is the owner of  www.fxrenew.com a provider of Forex signals from ex-bank and hedge fund traders (get a free trial). If you like Sam’s writing you can subscribe to his newsletter.