A positive move through the 21 week moving average in AUDNZD in February confirmed a similar move in RSI the previous week.

The year’s peak was reached during March and the market has slipped back since – crucially to that moving average which, despite spikes below, has held the downside for AUDNZD on a closing basis over the last 4 weeks.

But with the RSI giving a negative signal the underlying positive tone is under more serious threat with this week’s modest decline. We haven’t changed the medium term bias as yet but will be monitoring this week’s close closely, especially as the weekly Keltner channel is showing some worrying signals.

Break below will open up May’s 1.0608 AUDNZD base and the bottom of the Ichimoku Cloud.

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