This week will be all about the US Tax Reform as the Senate returns from recess, and about FOMC expectations as the new Fed Chairman Powell & the exiting Chair Yellen will both speak. Black Friday-Cyber Monday sales will also be under scrutiny in the US. In Europe, the main issue will be coalition talks in Germany. Elsewhere, OPEC will meet, the RBNZ publishes it’s FSR and Canada will issue GDP, Employment and Current Account numbers.
USD: the main focus this week will be the tax bill. Without serious progress, the dollar will likely drop further. Keep a lazy eye on Yellen & Powell also. The second estimate of GDP growth for the third quarter & the FOMC’s preferred inflation measure (PCE prices) are due.
GBP: nothing much to be aware of beyond Markit Manufacturing PMI. Keep an eye on the Irish government which could collapse ahead of Brexit talks.
EUR: coalition talks in Germany will probably dominate EU news. There is data out (third quarter GDP figures and Manufacturing PMIs will be released for several countries) but EU data hasn’t been market moving recently. Markets will also focus on business surveys, CPI and unemployment.
CAD: Banks release Q4 and full fiscal year earnings starting next week; the Bank of Canada will release its semi-annual Financial System Review; beyond that we will see GDP figures, unemployment and current account data will be the highlights of the week. Thursday’s OPEC meeting will center around extending production cuts to the end of next year. Whether this will be confirmed at the meeting will drive the energy market tone in the near-term.
AsiaPac: China will release figures for official manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI. Industrial profits and the Caixin manufacturing PMI will also be closely watched. In Australia, housing data and AIG Manufacturing Index will be in the spotlight. In New Zealand we get the RBNZ’s Financial Stability Report – which might be gloomy.
Going into the week I remaain with my bullish bias on US equities & Crude Oil, and I’m also bullish the Euro but with political developments due, things could change quickly.