Note that this is my current view, but if market conditions change my view can change too. Generally I will trade in alignment with what I have noted here, though I will wait for a set-up before I enter. I base my view on technical and fundamental information. This is my beliefs and you are welcome to have opposite ones. Having a plan is more important than the actual direction for me.
- Waiting GBP/USD. – Weekly MT is bear normal, but daily looks sideways. Fundamentals are also a little mixed. . Had a potential long breakout last week but the follow though not there yet. Not a bad buy if you believe in it but refer to trade GBP against currency pairs other than the USD
- Long USD/JPY. – Breakout – MT is sideways normal. USDJPY was one of the strongest currency pairs after the bullish Non-farm payrolls on Friday. USD longs could be switching back into USDJPY as their preferred vehicle.
- Short AUD/USD Trend – MT is strong bear. Very interesting week. We had two news announcement that should have been bearish for the Aussie but the price ended up with little change for the week. Remain short but very cautiously as when the price does not follow though in the news it could be a sign the trend is changing.
- Short EUR/USD. Trend – Weekly MT is strong bear. Daily and 4 hour MT’s are sideways but momentum from fridays NFP suggests the trend is still short.
- Short NZD/USD. Trend – MT is bear normal. The longer-term downtrend remains in place after a pullback.
- Waiting USD/CHF. – MT is sideways quiet. Forming a very tight range. Wait for the breakout. Suggest using a scale-in approach, and you may want to consider protecting your position. Sideways quiet breakouts can offer very good risk/reward opportunities.
- Waiting USD/CAD. – MT is volatile sideways. Volatile bull turning into volatile sideways (as is oil). Good opportunities for short-term traders in this MT.
- Long AUD/JPY. Reversal –MT is bull normal. Bullish candle stick formation and follow though off support suggest a change in trend. – Could be quite a good opportunity for around a 1000 pips – Don’t jump in. Go into stalking mode.
- Waiting NZD/JPY – MT is bear but it is getting tricky to pick it. Prefer to wait
- Waiting GBP/NZD. – MT is Sideways. Wary of a reversal, but favor the upside.
- Waiting AUD/NZD.– MT is bull normal but possibly turning sideways. Prefer long but stay out.
- Short EUR/GBP. Trend – MT is bear normal. Could be good opportunities to get short this pair for a longer-term move. Stalk an entry.
- Waiting EUR/AUD. – MT is volatile sideways. Still a bit tricky to me, but favor shorts based on action on the other cross-rates.
- Waiting EUR/NZD. – MT is volatile sideways. Similar to EURAUD.
- Long GBP/AUD. Trend – MT is normal bull. I thought we had a catalyst to go long this pair after last weeks analysis when the RBA cut rates. But the price action has not followed though as it should. remain long but probably not if we get a daily close below 1.9470. A better opportunity could be GBPJPY, though I still have conviction in this one.
- Long GBP/JPY. Breakout -MT is sideways normal. A breakout could be occurring here. Stalk an entry for a possible 1000-2000 pips. Don’t buy / get out quickly if the breakout fails.
(MT = Market Type: Click for more information on market types.)
Trend: Market is trending in the direction I have listed and I expect it to continue. I will list this with the .
Reversal: I am looking for a reversal against the current trend
Breakout: The currency pair is breaking out of a range
About the Author
Sam Eder is a currency trader and author of the Definitive Guide to Developing a Winning Forex Trading System and the Advanced Forex Course for Smart Traders (get free access). He is a co-owner of Forex Signal Provider www.fxrenew.com. If you like Sam’s writing you can subscribe to his newsletter.